YSRCP, BRS & BJD are parties that never directly joined the NDA alliance from 2019-24 but played a critical role in supporting BJP in parliament especially to overcome the shortfall in Rajyasabha. They expected that being in good books with Modi & BJP will ensure that they will not be targetted by enforcement agencies and also electorally. However they have suffered a fatal blow in 2024 with them loosing their position of power in their states to a position of will they survive unitil the next election.
BRS was the one that helped BJP the most by trying to create an third front that would have divided the anti-bjp vote ensuring a clear victory for BJP. To be fair BJP did playdown itself in Telangana Assembly elections to ensure a BRS win so that INC will not be in ruling seat in the state during lok sabha elections. However the tactic didnt work as INC narrowly won telangana assembly elections with 1.8% vote lead. But after loosing in asssembly elections BRS which looked like a unshakable fortess 6 montsh before the assembly elections was shaken to its foundations. Its local leaders jumped to either INC or BJP choosing either a party thats in power in state or in center. Now in the loksabha elections it finds itself out of the race with extreme polarisation between INC & BJP and most of BRS vote being anti-congress shifted to BJP. Now BJP is practically the main opposition in Telangana taking BRS space. The only hope now for BRS is if BJP thinks it is important to make BRS survive so as to split minority and dalit vote then it will prop them up for sometime. If that is BJP thinking we can expect BRS supremos daugter Kavita to be out within the next 3 or 4 weeks at max.
YSRCP too had been backing BJP in critical bills and they were hoping to continue working as an official NDA extension. With TDP supremo too facing cases, Andhra Pradesh 25 lok sabha seats were seen as indirectly in BJP kitty without BJP having to win a single seat. But as 2024 elections approached BJP had to change gears. With all studies pointing that BJP is likely to loose 30 to 40 seats in the hindi heartland it had to look south to cover those up. So between YSRCP & TDP they were confident that YSRCP cant join INDIA because of Jagan's core anti-congressism and it had to ensure that TDP doesnt jump into the INDIA alliance. So in the last minute it roped in TDP into NDA. YSRCP still could have hoped to gain from this by attacking them on communalism to consolidate miniority and dalit vote. But YSRCP has been so spinelss that it didnt dare to make a single strong statement that might hurt Modi or BJP. Even when in last one week when TDP started attacking YSRCP on land bill, YSRCP did not even dare point out that the bill was made by NDA government and it was only implementing it. With it loosing power YSRCP may be following the path of BRS. If INC shows resurgence in other states or if Jagans sister Sharmila continues to lead the INC, it is very possible that YSRCP local leaders will go back to thier roots. This is especially strong possibility considering that Jagan is not known as an organisation builder and if he doesnt keep his cadre engaged with agitations and movements they will very well look at greener pastures. After 2014 elections too when he lost elections he could hardly keep his MLA's with him. But his padayatra worked in his favour for 2019 elections but he cant hope to use same recipie again.
BJD was another party that supported NDA in parliament indirectly only to be eaten by it now. BJP did try to have a aliance with BJD but the seat sharing talks collapsed and now in the assembly elections BJP is sweeping the state. With BJD being a family run party and its supremo now not having a decendent, this looks like the end of the road for BJD. It is not just BJP that will gain in Orissa but Congress too will gain from the collapse of BJD. This would be in the interest of BJP too as it pushes India towards a two dominant party system so as it is easy to show down one party rather than so many regional parties.
