TL;DR: Despite ALL exit polls predicting a Congress victory 🏆, BJP secured a massive win in the Haryana Assembly 2024 elections, bagging 48 seats and a vote share of 39%! Congress, overconfident and chasing the wrong strategy, managed only 35 seats. MediaFx.co was the only platform 📢 to predict that Congress’s attempts to out-Hindutva BJP were hurting its chances. The result? Congress lost the narrative completely! Read on to see how this shocking win unfolded. 👇👇
In a twist that left everyone stunned, the BJP swept the Haryana Assembly elections 2024, taking home 48 seats 🏅, enough for a clear majority in the 90-member assembly. What’s crazy? Almost every exit poll had predicted Congress’s return to power! 😱 But in the end, it was the BJP who came out on top, riding on 39% of the vote share, an improvement from their 36.5% in 2019. Congress, on the other hand, was left with just 35 seats, despite gaining 32% of the votes.
Let’s break it down with hard stats! 📝
The Shocking Numbers 📊
• BJP: 48 seats (up from 40 in 2019) with a 39% vote share 💪
• Congress: 35 seats (up from 31 in 2019), 32% vote share
• Independent candidates and others: 7 seats
In comparison, the 2019 Assembly Elections saw BJP bag 40 seats with a 36.5% vote share, while Congress had 31 seats and a 28% vote share. Fast forward to 2024, and BJP’s vote share has climbed by nearly 3% 📈, solidifying their grip on power in Haryana.
What’s more interesting is the 2024 Lok Sabha elections just a few months ago, where Congress seemed to have the edge, winning 5 out of 10 seats in Haryana. It looked like they had a clear advantage going into the assembly elections. So, what went wrong?
MediaFx.co Nailed It! 🎯
When all exit polls were pointing to a Congress win, MediaFx.co boldly predicted that Congress was losing the plot. Why? Because instead of presenting itself as a real alternative to the BJP, Congress tried to mimic BJP’s communal messaging. By trying to out-Hindutva the BJP, Congress lost its core secular narrative. MediaFx.co was the only platform to call this out before the results! 🗣️
While most political analysts and media were focused on Congress’s rising popularity, we highlighted that the party was merely banking on anti-BJP sentiment without offering a real reason to vote for them. And we were spot on! 🎯 The overconfidence of the Congress party, which has become a recurring theme in state elections, was their undoing.
BJP’s Divisive Strategy: The 35:1 Formula 👥⚔️
Rather than focusing on development or inclusive governance, BJP doubled down on a divisive caste-based narrative. Their entire campaign revolved around the “35:1” formula, where they pitched to voters that out of the 36 dominant castes in Haryana, only 1 caste and 1 family—referring to Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s dominance in Congress—would benefit if Congress returned to power.
This strategy played on long-standing caste tensions in Haryana, positioning the BJP as the party that would prevent the concentration of power in the hands of one dominant group. By fueling these divisions, BJP was able to polarize voters and shift the focus away from their own failures in governance. 🧨
BJP’s narrative wasn’t about issues like employment, agriculture, or infrastructure. Instead, they focused on instilling fear of Congress’s return by suggesting that the state would once again be dominated by Jat leaders from the Hooda family, while other castes would be sidelined. This communal and casteist agenda was the cornerstone of BJP’s campaign, diverting attention from actual policy discussions and governance issues.
Congress: What Went Wrong? 😔
1. Communal Messaging Backfired: As MediaFx.co pointed out earlier, Congress tried to outdo BJP’s Hindutva agenda instead of sticking to its own secular narrative. This didn’t work, as BJP’s brand of Hindutva is more established, leaving Congress looking confused.
2. Overconfidence: The Congress party became overconfident, relying solely on anti-incumbency. They thought voter dissatisfaction with BJP policies would naturally translate to votes for them, but voters weren’t convinced.
3. AAP and Alliance Failure: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also played a significant role in dividing the opposition vote. By refusing to negotiate seat-sharing, they weakened the anti-BJP front, helping the BJP consolidate its position.
4. No Grassroots Strategy: Congress continued to be a feudal party, with all decisions centralized to a few leaders. They lacked ear-to-ground feedback and failed to stitch together alliances that could have helped them reach a broader voter base.
Historical Comparison 📅
Let’s see how the performance of BJP and Congress has shifted over time:
• 2019 Assembly Elections:
• BJP: 40 seats, 36.5% vote share
• Congress: 31 seats, 28% vote share
• 2024 Assembly Elections:
• BJP: 48 seats, 39% vote share
• Congress: 35 seats, 32% vote share
Congress managed to increase its vote share but fell short in seats due to its fragmented strategy. Meanwhile, BJP expanded its seat tally, pulling ahead despite rising dissatisfaction since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where Congress had won 5 out of 10 seats in Haryana! Clearly, the BJP’s ground-level mobilization worked better than Congress’s over-reliance on anti-incumbency.
AAP’s Role 🧩
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also influenced the results by refusing to compromise during seat-sharing talks. Their insistence on more seats split the opposition vote, making it easier for the BJP to cruise to victory 🏁. Had AAP been more flexible, the election results might have been very different.
Lessons for Congress 📝
• Stop relying on anti-BJP sentiment. Congress needs to offer a real alternative to the BJP, not just oppose them.
• Get back to the grassroots. Congress must build alliances, work with smaller parties, and focus on real issues.
• Stop trying to be BJP 2.0. By copying BJP’s Hindutva agenda, Congress alienated its secular voter base while failing to convince BJP’s core voters.
Conclusion: Congress Needs a Reality Check 🛑
In the end, BJP’s third consecutive win in Haryana is a reality check for the Congress. MediaFx.co correctly pointed out that Congress was on the wrong track well before anyone else! By ignoring the importance of alliances, trying to outdo BJP’s communal strategy, and relying too much on anti-incumbency, Congress once again let BJP pull the rug from under their feet.
Want to discuss this shocking twist? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! 👇
